Why are bonds selling off?
What causes bond prices to fall? Bond prices move in inverse fashion to interest rates, reflecting an important bond investing consideration known as interest rate risk. If bond yields decline, the value of bonds already on the market move higher. If bond yields rise, existing bonds lose value.
Interest rate changes are the primary culprit when bond exchange-traded funds (ETFs) lose value. As interest rates rise, the prices of existing bonds fall, which impacts the value of the ETFs holding these assets.
Bond prices decline when interest rates rise, when the issuer experiences a negative credit event, or as market liquidity dries up. Inflation can also erode the returns on bonds, as well as taxes or regulatory changes.
Why did the Treasury bond market crash in 2022 and 2023? Interest rates and the price of bonds have an inverse relationship. As interest rates go up, the market value (price) of bonds declines. When the Federal Reserve raises the federal funds rate, it can cause the bond market to crash.
A sell-off occurs when a large volume of securities is sold in a short period. A sell-off causes the price of a security to fall in rapid succession. As more shares are offered than buyers are willing to accept, the price decline may accelerate as market psychology turns pessimistic.
As for fixed income, we expect a strong bounce-back year to play out over the course of 2024. When bond yields are high, the income earned is often enough to offset most price fluctuations. In fact, for the 10-year Treasury to deliver a negative return in 2024, the yield would have to rise to 5.3 percent.
Short-term bond yields are high currently, but with the Federal Reserve poised to cut interest rates investors may want to consider longer-term bonds or bond funds. High-quality bond investments remain attractive.
And we believe bonds will continue to play a valuable role in offsetting stock losses over the long term. "Diversification benefits are back," said Sara Devereux, global head of Vanguard Fixed Income Group. "2022 was a highly unusual year. Over the long term, bonds continue to be a great diversifier to equity stress."
| Face Value | Purchase Amount | 30-Year Value (Purchased May 1990) |
|---|---|---|
| $50 Bond | $100 | $207.36 |
| $100 Bond | $200 | $414.72 |
| $500 Bond | $400 | $1,036.80 |
| $1,000 Bond | $800 | $2,073.60 |
Price fluctuations (unlike CDs). While bond prices generally fluctuate less than stocks, they still do fluctuate, unlike CDs. So if you need to sell a bond for some reason at any point, there's no guarantee that you'll receive all your money back. Not insured (unlike CDs).
Should you sell bonds when interest rates rise?
Unless you are set on holding your bonds until maturity despite the upcoming availability of more lucrative options, a looming interest rate hike should be a clear sell signal.
Dan Lefkovitz: 2022 was termed by some as the worst bond market ever. We had double-digit losses for core bond indexes, and some advisors and investors concluded that the best way to own bonds is to skip bond funds and purchase individual credits and hold them to maturity instead.
Key central bank rates and bond yields remain high globally and are likely to remain elevated well into 2024 before retreating. Further, the chance of higher policy rates from here is slim; the potential for rates to decline is much higher.
After bonds are initially issued, their worth will fluctuate like a stock's would. If you're holding the bond to maturity, the fluctuations won't matter—your interest payments and face value won't change.
Treasury yields jump by most since 2022-2023 after hotter-than-expected CPI inflation report. Two- and 10-year Treasury yields leapt by the most in at least a year on Wednesday, after March's hotter-than-expected consumer-price index report threw doubts on the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates by June.
The interest saved on paying off your bond and the interest earned afterwards is not as good as being invested in the market. And, if we deduct income tax on that interest you earned, the final NAV would be even worse.
Vanguard's active fixed income team believes emerging markets (EM) bonds could outperform much of the rest of the fixed income market in 2024 because of the likelihood of declining global interest rates, the current yield premium over U.S. investment-grade bonds, and a longer duration profile than U.S. high yield.
Why interest rates affect bonds. Bond prices have an inverse relationship with interest rates. This means that when interest rates go up, bond prices go down and when interest rates go down, bond prices go up.
Traditionally, the answer has been that bonds provide diversification and income. They zig when stocks zag, providing income for spending needs. In finance terms, bonds have “low correlation” levels to stocks, and adding them to a portfolio would help to reduce the overall portfolio risk.
These are the risks of holding bonds: Risk #1: When interest rates fall, bond prices rise. Risk #2: Having to reinvest proceeds at a lower rate than what the funds were previously earning. Risk #3: When inflation increases dramatically, bonds can have a negative rate of return.
Are bonds safer than stocks right now?
U.S. Treasury bonds are generally more stable than stocks in the short term, but this lower risk typically translates to lower returns, as noted above. Treasury securities, such as government bonds, notes and bills, are virtually risk-free, as the U.S. government backs these instruments.
- High-yield savings accounts.
- Certificates of deposit (CDs)
- Bonds.
- Money market funds.
- Mutual funds.
- Index Funds.
- Exchange-traded funds.
- Stocks.
- Vanguard Total World Bond ETF (BNDW)
- Vanguard Core-Plus Bond ETF (VPLS)
- DoubleLine Commercial Real Estate ETF (DCRE)
- Global X 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF (CLIP)
- SPDR Portfolio Corporate Bond ETF (SPBO)
- JPMorgan Ultra-Short Income ETF (JPST)
- iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF)
- iShares 10-20 Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLH)
| Rank | Fund | Yield |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vanguard High-Yield Corporate Fund Investor Shares (VWEHX) | 6.40% |
| 2 | T. Rowe Price High Yield Fund (PRHYX) | 7.02% |
| 3 | PGIM High Yield Fund Class A (PBHAX) | 7.22% |
| 4 | Fidelity Capital & Income Fund (fa*gIX) | 6.16% |
Bonds can lose market value if interest rates rise after they are purchased, though the full face value will be paid if securities are held to maturity. Bonds underperform stocks over the long term.
