Is now a good time to buy bond funds?
Short-term bond yields are high currently, but with the Federal Reserve poised to cut interest rates investors may want to consider longer-term bonds or bond funds. High-quality bond investments remain attractive.
Here are 3 reasons why now's a good time to evaluate the role of high-quality fixed income exposure in your portfolio. Bonds are providing healthier yields than we've seen since before the 2008 global financial crisis. Higher current yields support a much-improved outlook for bond returns going forward.
Starting yields, potential rate cuts and a return to contrasting performance for stocks and bonds could mean an attractive environment for fixed income in 2024.
Should I only buy bonds when interest rates are high? There are advantages to purchasing bonds after interest rates have risen. Along with generating a larger income stream, such bonds may be subject to less interest rate risk, as there may be a reduced chance of rates moving significantly higher from current levels.
It's a 'better bet' to buy I bonds now
If you buy I bonds now, you'll receive 5.27% annual interest for six months and the new May rate for the following six months. He suggests buying a few days before April 30.
Vanguard's active fixed income team believes emerging markets (EM) bonds could outperform much of the rest of the fixed income market in 2024 because of the likelihood of declining global interest rates, the current yield premium over U.S. investment-grade bonds, and a longer duration profile than U.S. high yield.
In the short run, rising interest rates may negatively affect the value of a bond portfolio. However, over the long run, rising interest rates can actually increase a bond portfolio's overall return. This is because money from maturing bonds can be reinvested into new bonds with higher yields.
Key central bank rates and bond yields remain high globally and are likely to remain elevated well into 2024 before retreating. Further, the chance of higher policy rates from here is slim; the potential for rates to decline is much higher.
Most bonds pay a fixed interest rate that becomes more attractive if interest rates fall, driving up demand and the price of the bond. Conversely, if interest rates rise, investors will no longer prefer the lower fixed interest rate paid by a bond, resulting in a decline in its price.
In line with the outlook from other investment providers, the firm is forecasting a 5.7% gain in 2024 for U.S. investment-grade bonds, versus 4.9% last year and 2.3% in 2022. (All figures are nominal.)
Are bond funds safe in a market crash?
Bonds are generally considered a less-risky complement to the volatility of stocks in an investment portfolio. U.S. Treasurys, and specifically Treasury bills and Treasury notes, are the benchmark for a nearly risk-free investment if held to maturity.
| Rank | Fund | Yield |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vanguard High-Yield Corporate Fund Investor Shares (VWEHX) | 6.40% |
| 2 | T. Rowe Price High Yield Fund (PRHYX) | 7.02% |
| 3 | PGIM High Yield Fund Class A (PBHAX) | 7.22% |
| 4 | Fidelity Capital & Income Fund (fa*gIX) | 6.16% |
The share prices of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that invest in bonds typically go lower when interest rates rise. When market interest rates rise, the fixed rate paid by existing bonds becomes less attractive, sinking these bonds' prices.
At an initial rate of 5.27%, buying an I bond in April gets roughly 0.2% more compared to the 5.05% 12-month Treasury Bill rate (April 10, 2024). Unlike 2021 and 2022, I Bond rates are more in line with other similar interest rate products.
| Face Value | Purchase Amount | 20-Year Value (Purchased May 2000) |
|---|---|---|
| $50 Bond | $100 | $109.52 |
| $100 Bond | $200 | $219.04 |
| $500 Bond | $400 | $547.60 |
| $1,000 Bond | $800 | $1,095.20 |
You can count on a Series I bond to hold its value; that is, the bond's redemption value will not decline.
The securities that underlie the funds are held by a custodian, not by Vanguard. Vanguard is paid by the funds to provide administration and other services. If Vanguard ever did go bankrupt, the funds would not be affected and would simply hire another firm to provide these services.
- Vanguard 500 Index Fund Admiral Shares (VFIAX).
- Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Admiral Shares (VTSAX).
- Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund Admiral Shares (VBTLX).
- Vanguard Balanced Index Fund Admiral Shares (VBIAX).
About Vanguard
Vanguard's mission is to "take a stand for all investors, to treat them fairly, and to give them the best chance for investment success."6 It prides itself on its stability, transparency, low costs, and risk management.
The table on the right shows that bond prices often recover within 8 to 12 months. Unnerved investors that are selling their bond funds risk missing out when bond returns recover. It is important to acknowledge that some of those strong recoveries were helped by bond yields that were higher than they are today.
Is it better to buy bonds or bond funds?
Key takeaways. Buying individual bonds can provide increased control and transparency, but typically requires a greater commitment of time and financial resources. Investing in bond funds can make it easier to achieve broad diversification with a lower dollar commitment, but offers less control.
After bonds are initially issued, their worth will fluctuate like a stock's would. If you're holding the bond to maturity, the fluctuations won't matter—your interest payments and face value won't change.
- Fidelity 500 Index Fund. : Best overall.
- Fidelity Large Cap Growth Index Fund. : Best for growth investors.
- Fidelity Investment Grade Bond Fund. ...
- Fidelity Total Bond Fund. ...
- Vanguard Wellesley Income Fund Investor Shares. ...
- Schwab Fundamental US Large Company Index Fund. ...
- Schwab S&P 500 Index Fund. ...
- Vanguard High-Yield Tax-Exempt Fund.
U.S. stock returns: 2023 optimism carries forward
This heightened optimism is on par with the positive outlook in December 2021, when investors anticipated a 6% stock market return for 2022. Investor expectations for stock returns over the long run (defined as the next 10 years) rose slightly to 7.2%.
The US 10 Year Treasury Bond Note Yield is expected to trade at 4.11 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 3.85 in 12 months time.
